Energy Market Trends – November 2025
Electricity Market
Overview
In November 2025, electricity markets across the National Electricity Market (NEM) reflected a transition from spring stability toward early-summer risk conditions. Strong renewable generation continued to play a central role in meeting demand, particularly across wind-rich southern regions. However, rising temperatures, increasing demand volatility, and planned outages at thermal generators reintroduced short-term pricing sensitivity during peak periods.
While wholesale prices generally remained below winter highs, market participants became increasingly alert to summer reliability risks, especially in regions with tightening dispatchable capacity.
Market Dynamics
Renewable generation (wind and solar) remained the dominant marginal supply source during many trading intervals, supported by favourable spring conditions. Coal generation continued its structural decline, with ageing assets operating more selectively and increasingly impacted by maintenance requirements and heat-related constraints.
Battery storage assets played a more visible role in evening peak balancing, particularly in Victoria and South Australia, helping to smooth short-duration price spikes. Forward contract markets for calendar year 2026 showed renewed sensitivity, with pricing reacting quickly to outage announcements, transmission limitations, and emerging summer demand forecasts.
Transmission congestion, particularly in Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) corridors, continued to limit the full utilisation of renewable output during high-generation periods.
Spot Price Trends
Spot prices across the NEM were generally moderate through much of November but displayed increased intraday volatility during hot weather events. Afternoon and early evening peaks saw sharper price movements, reflecting the narrowing margin between renewable supply and dispatchable backup generation.
The NEM-wide volume-weighted average spot price (VWAP) edged higher compared to October, signaling the market’s gradual shift toward summer operating conditions.
Regional Highlights
Victoria & South Australia
Strong wind and solar output supported lower average prices, though local network constraints and curtailment risks persisted. Evening peaks highlighted the growing importance of batteries and fast-response generation.
New South Wales
Demand variability increased as temperatures rose. While prices remained largely contained, reliance on thermal generation during renewable lulls kept reliability risks front of mind.
Queensland
Higher baseline demand and continued dependence on coal and gas generation limited price softness relative to southern states, particularly during warmer days.
Tasmania
Hydro storage management remained critical. Variable inflows required careful balancing between generation and interconnector flows to mainland markets.
Western Australia
Operating outside the NEM, WA markets continued to be shaped by local generation availability, gas supply conditions, and battery deployment rather than eastern-states dynamics.
Natural Gas Market
Overview
Gas markets in November 2025 remained structurally tight, with limited easing despite lower winter demand. The role of gas as a firming and backup fuel for electricity generation continued to underpin demand, particularly as markets prepared for summer reliability events.
Market Drivers
Domestic gas prices remained influenced by LNG export parity pricing and constrained supply growth. Maintenance schedules and delays in new supply developments limited short-term flexibility. Industrial users increasingly focused on demand management, electrification strategies, and contract diversification to manage ongoing price exposure.
State-by-State Gas Snapshot
NSW & Victoria
Gas demand for power generation increased during peak events, reinforcing price volatility for large industrial users.
Queensland
Despite stronger supply fundamentals, export market dynamics continued to anchor domestic pricing at elevated levels.
South Australia
Gas remained essential for system security during periods of low renewable output, particularly during evening peaks.
Western Australia
WA remained relatively insulated, though domestic supply security and long-term gas availability remain strategic considerations.
Policy, Infrastructure & Regulatory Trends
Policy focus in November centred on summer preparedness, reliability planning, and accelerated investment in firming capacity. Transmission development remained a priority, with continued emphasis on unlocking REZ capacity and reducing congestion.
Regulatory discussions progressed around market reform measures designed to support dispatchable investment, credit frameworks, and improved incentives for storage and flexible generation. Gas policy debates continued, particularly around reservation mechanisms and investment certainty for new supply.
Outlook & Risks
As the market moves into summer, key risks include heat-driven demand spikes, unplanned generator outages, and renewable variability during extended low-wind or low-solar periods. Transmission congestion and curtailment continue to constrain renewable efficiency, while gas supply and pricing uncertainty remain a concern for energy-intensive users.
Forward markets are expected to remain reactive, with pricing sensitive to weather forecasts, outage schedules, and policy developments. Proactive procurement, contract timing, and portfolio diversification remain critical strategies for managing exposure in the months ahead.
Austech Power & Gas continues to monitor these developments closely, supporting clients with informed procurement strategies, market insights, and risk management solutions tailored to Australia’s rapidly evolving energy landscape.